The Smoke That Fades

PMI and the Bet on a Combustion-Free Future

Something is shifting at the heart of one of the most scrutinized industries of the past century. Philip Morris International — historically a symbol of cigarette dominance — is now attempting to embody its own negation: a smoke-free company. What unfolds in the 2024 Integrated Report is not merely a corporate roadmap but a document aiming to rewrite a transformation narrative. Beneath the surface of figures, technological promises, and environmental certifications lies a pressing question: Can this transformation, still partial, truly place the consumer at the center —not as the target of strategies, but as an informed subject empowered to make a less harmful choice?

Currently, Philip Morris International’s (PMI) smoke-free product portfolio spans multiple categories that deliberately avoid burning tobacco — a clear shift toward alternatives that pose lower health risks. These include heated tobacco systems (IQOS), oral nicotine products such as snus and nicotine pouches under the ZYN brand, and closed-system vaping devices marketed as VEEV ONE and VEEV NOW.

Despite persistent skepticism and ongoing criticism from segments of academia, public health, and civil society, this technological shift is reshaping the global tobacco market and driving a strategic narrative of industrial redemption.

Within this narrative, the industry seeks to reposition itself under the banner of public health and harm reduction, appropriating a language historically rooted in preventive medicine and consumer rights.

As of early 2024, Philip Morris International reported approximately 38.6 million users of smoke-free products, with around 32.2 million using IQOS devices.

Emblems of a new technological era in the tobacco industry, these products are now available in 95 markets. In six, more than 75% of the company’s annual net revenues come exclusively from this category — revealing not only rapid commercial penetration but also the strategic weight these devices have gained within PMI’s global ecosystem.

This business model transformation is not confined to corporate discourse; it is clearly reflected in the numbers: In 2024, smoke-free products accounted for 38.7% of PMI’s adjusted net revenues. The company projects this share will exceed two-thirds by 2030, marking a structural shift advancing at a pace that challenges even the most tenacious skeptics.

According to PMI’s 2024 Integrated Report, released this past April 3, one of the company’s most pressing strategic challenges is expanding access to smoke-free products in low—and middle-income countries—regions historically relegated to the margins of tobacco industry innovation.

The stated goal is for over 50% of the markets where these alternatives are sold to fall within this socioeconomic category by 2025, signaling a deliberate bet on the geographic expansion of consumption—with all the ethical and structural implications that entails.

Since 2008, PMI has invested more than $14 billion in the development, scientific validation, and commercialization of smoke-free products. This figure encompasses various activities, from preclinical toxicology and clinical trials to behavioral research and post-marketing surveillance.

In this context, science is not presented as a symbolic ornament or rhetorical flourish — it stands as a strategic pillar. In 2024 alone, the company allocated $759 million to research and development.

The report emphasizes that accessibility — of both devices and consumables — remains a critical factor. Accordingly, the portfolio has been expanded and diversified with more affordable alternatives, designed to meet the specific needs of adult smokers across an uneven geography marked by persistent socioeconomic gaps.

PMI’s stated objective is, at least in its formulation, unambiguous: to completely replace combustible cigarettes with smoke-free alternatives, scientifically validated and deemed to carry lower risk. The company acknowledges it cannot achieve this objective alone, but it insists — time and again — that a world without cigarettes is not only desirable but possible. What remains open to debate is how that world will be built, who will define its terms, and according to which logic of power, science, and market.

Strategic Shifts and Developments

The 2024 Integrated Report by Philip Morris International outlines a sweeping transformation in vision and execution, marking a clear departure from the company’s combustible past. Among the key highlights:

Decades of Innovation: 2024 marked the tenth anniversary of IQOS and ZYN — now icons of PMI’s smoke-free portfolio. The report highlights their sustained growth and global leadership within their respective categories, set against a backdrop where technological innovation has become the company’s founding narrative.

New Inclusion Index: PMI replaced its previous Net Promoter Score (iNPS) with a more robust index developed from a 2023 inclusion study. This new framework evaluates key dimensions such as respect, psychological safety, and active promotion of diversity, reflecting an effort to reconfigure internal culture through more qualitative metrics.

Sustainability as a Strategic Core: Once a footnote in corporate reports, sustainability is now a central axis of PMI’s business narrative. Key developments include: Materiality assessment aligned with the EU's Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive (CSRD); first pre-certified Environmental Product Declarations (EPDs) for IQOS ILUMA i devices; and the Science Based Targets Initiative (SBTi), which is revalidating greenhouse gas reduction targets and now incorporating Swedish Match data. Four new carbon-neutral certifications, bringing the total to 25 certified facilities; pioneering commitment to the Taskforce on Nature-related Financial Disclosures (TNFD), with a first report planned for 2025; external verification of forest procurement policies by the Forest Stewardship Council (FSC).

Emphasis on Science and Harm Reduction: Scientific legitimization remains central to PMI’s strategy, backed by a suite of studies and regulatory approvals: A clinical cross-sectional survey comparing biomarkers of potential harm among smokers, IQOS users, and former smokers — with favorable results for the second group; Renewal of modified risk tobacco product (MRTP) authorization for eight General Snus products by the FDA; PMTA approval for all currently marketed ZYN products in the U.S.; Launch of two retrospective studies in Japan on the long-term effects of IQOS use.

Integration of Swedish Match: The integration takes shape through processes and standards, such as adopting sustainability and quality metrics under the GOTHIATEK® standard and transferring PMI’s snus production model into the Swedish Match framework.

Technological Innovation: PMI continues to refine its product ecosystem. The expansion of the IQOS ILUMA portfolio with the new IQOS ILUMA i was developed in response to specific consumer concerns. Age verification technology using facial analysis was introduced. A new packaging varnish was developed that significantly reduces plastic use.

Health and Wellness (Aspeya): Three developments stand out within the Aspeya initiative: the Sale of Vectura Group Ltd., effective December 31, 2024; future inclusion of health and wellness outcomes in the European segment of the report; and independent publication of the ESG report by Fertin Pharma, an Aspeya subsidiary.

Supply Chain Management: The report emphasizes increased social and environmental vigilance in the supply chain, including a review of the Agricultural Labor Practices (ALP) Code, implementation of a Social Risk Monitoring Program (SRMP), living income benchmark studies in Indonesia and the Philippines, and human rights impact assessments in Kazakhstan and Indonesia, which were completed ahead of the 2025 target.

Other Noteworthy Actions: Additional initiatives round out PMI’s new corporate approach: Pilot testing of digital services at IQOS retail locations. Expansion of recycling programs through the CIRCLE initiative. Enhanced collection of primary data on greenhouse gas emissions across the value chain. More rigorous water risk assessments for non-tobacco materials. Updated human rights risk mapping. Increased reporting through the Speak Up whistleblower channel.

A Transformation in Progress

Beyond the headlines, PMI’s 2024 Integrated Report reveals a tension that remains unresolved: one that stretches between a business model still anchored in combustible products and a promise of transformation — technological, regulatory, and social — advancing in fits and starts: at times with determination, at others with caution, across a landscape riddled with uncertainties. These uncertainties strike at the core of scientific credibility, regulatory scrutiny, and public health equity.

Because this is not merely about figures, devices, or ESG metrics. At its heart, the question is how one of the most controversial industries of the 20th century is attempting to rewrite its role in the 21st — and whether this metamorphosis, presented as irreversible, can truly disperse the thick smoke of its own legacy.

Along this path, the report reaffirms its support for risk-proportionate regulation — a core concept in contemporary harm reduction strategies. Yet it remains silent on the concrete mechanisms through which PMI seeks to operationalize this vision across the various regulatory landscapes in which it operates. There is no mention, for instance, of institutional dialogues, technical participation, or collaborative initiatives with health authorities — all of which inevitably vary according to each country's market's legal, cultural, and political conditions.

This omission is far from trivial: without clarity on how these actions are articulated — especially in contexts where lobbying is neither formalized nor legally permitted — the promise of transformation risks becoming enclosed within a carefully self-contained narrative. And when rhetoric runs ahead of reality, the smoke — though subtler — does not vanish; it merely shifts shape.

If PMI aims to establish legitimacy rooted in the public good, multiple pathways could reinforce its credibility. Among them, guaranteeing open access to the scientific data that supports its products is not enough: these data must be activated and translated into clear, accessible, and comprehensible language. Equally essential is creating genuine channels for active listening and dialogue with adult consumers, ensuring that their voices inform the evolution of the product landscape.

No less crucial is a firm renunciation of visual codes, aspirational narratives, or influencer-based marketing strategies that—however subtle—may appeal to non-smokers or underage audiences, thereby threatening the principle of non-initiation that any serious harm reduction policy must uphold.

This must be guided by a non-negotiable principle of equity: innovation in vulnerable markets is not enough; it must be deployed with regulatory safeguards, fair pricing, genuinely accessible products, and a distributive ethic that avoids reproducing old asymmetries through new devices.

The industry that has cultivated dependency for decades now faces a historic opportunity: to prove that genuine transformation is not measured merely by changes in its product portfolio but by how it limits, shares, and transparently reveals the power it still holds.

“We are deliberately moving away from cigarettes.” But as the company advances its smoke-free agenda, even its leadership admits: “Ideology has temporarily prevailed over science.”

While the numbers reflect a transformation in progress, PMI’s top executives articulate a narrative of strategic conviction. For CEO Jacek Olczak, the shift toward a smoke-free future represents “a historic change in corporate purpose,” driven by the “remarkable resilience” of teams navigating a global landscape where, he argues, ideology has temporarily triumphed over science. Yet this tension, rather than weakening the path forward, only strengthens his belief that “a world without cigarettes is attainable.”

At the same time, Christos Harpantidis, Senior Vice President of External Affairs, insists that such an ambitious goal can only be achieved through collective action — particularly from governments. He calls for stronger regulations on combustible products, active promotion of lower-risk alternatives, and evidence-based public health education. “Success,” he says, “depends on ensuring adult smokers have access to and information about better options, while firmly preventing access by minors.”

On another front, Werner Barth, President of the Combustibles category, openly acknowledges the role traditional cigarettes still play: they finance the expansion of smoke-free products through profitability and logistics. “Our priority,” he states, “is to strengthen our ability to support this transition, with responsible marketing and sales practices that guard against unintended access.”

Within the harm reduction paradigm, where each step matters —even if imperfect— the paradox is not failure but the very terrain of transition. The industry that once fed the fire now seeks to redirect its heat toward another end without fully extinguishing the flame. The question that remains is not whether the transformation is sincere, but whether it will be enough — and in time — to save lives that can no longer wait.

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